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All-People-Test-Based Methods for COVID-19 Infectious Disease Dynamics Simulation Model: Towards Citywide COVID Testing
Liu, Xian Xian1; Yang, Jie2; Fong, Simon1; Dey, Nilanjan3; Millham, Richard C.4; Fiaidhi, Jinan5
2022-09-01
Source PublicationInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
ISSN1660-4601
Volume19Issue:17
Abstract

The conversion rate between asymptomatic infections and reported/unreported symptomatic infections is a very sensitive parameter for model variables that spread COVID-19. This is important information for follow-up use in screening, prediction, prognostics, contact tracing, and drug development for the COVID-19 pandemic. The model described here suggests that there may not be enough researchers to solve all of these problems thoroughly and effectively, and it requires careful selection of what we are doing and rapid sharing of results and models and optimizing modeling simulations with value to reduce the impact of COVID-19. Exploring simulation modeling will help decision makers make the most informed decisions. In order to fight against the “Delta” virus, the establishment of a line of defense through all-people testing (APT) is not only an effective method summarized from past experience but also one of the best means to effectively cut the chain of epidemic transmission. The effect of large-scale testing has been fully verified in the international community. We developed a practical dynamic infectious disease model-SETPG (A + I) RD + APT by considering the effects of the all-people test (APT). The model is useful for studying effects of screening measures and providing a more realistic modelling with all-people-test strategies, which require everybody in a population to be tested for infection. In prior work, a total of 370 epidemic cases were collected. We collected three kinds of known cases: the cumulative number of daily incidences, daily cumulative recovery, and daily cumulative deaths in Hong Kong and the United States between 22 January 2020 and 13 November 2020 were simulated. In two essential strategies of the integrated SETPG (A + I) RD + APT model, comparing the cumulative number of screenings in derivative experiments based on daily detection capability and tracking system application rate, we evaluated the performance of the timespan required for the basic regeneration number (R0) and real-time regeneration number (R0t) to reach 1; the optimal policy of each experiment is available, and the screening effect is evaluated by screening performance indicators. with the binary encoding screening method, the number of screenings for the target population is 8667 in HK and 1,803,400 in the U.S., including 6067 asymptomatic cases in HK and 1,262,380 in the U.S. as well as 2599 cases of mild symptoms in HK and 541,020 in the U.S.; there were also 8.25 days of screening timespan in HK and 9.25 days of screening timespan required in the U.S. and a daily detectability of 625,000 cases in HK and 6,050,000 cases in the U.S. Using precise tracking technology, number of screenings for the target population is 6060 cases in HK and 1,766,420 cases in the U.S., including 4242 asymptomatic cases in HK and 1,236,494 cases in the U.S. as well as 1818 cases of mild symptoms in HK and 529,926 cases in the U.S. Total screening timespan (TS) is 8.25~9.25 days. According to the proposed infectious dynamics model that adapts to the all-people test, all of the epidemic cases were reported for fitting, and the result seemed more reasonable, and epidemic prediction became more accurate. It adapted to densely populated metropolises for APT on prevention.

KeywordCovid-19 Sampling Pooling Mobile App Precise Tracking Technology Setpg (a + i) Rd + Apt Model Transmission Dynamics
DOI10.3390/ijerph191710959
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE ; SSCI
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS IDWOS:000851178600001
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85137584077
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Cited Times [WOS]:0   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
Affiliation1.Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, Taipa, SAR 519000, Macao
2.Chongqing Industry Trade Polytechnic, Chongqing, 408000, China
3.Department of Computer Science and Engineering, JIS University, Kolkata, 700109, India
4.ICT & Society Group, Durban University of Technology, Durban, 4001, South Africa
5.e-Health Research Group, Computer Science Department, Lakehead University, Thunder Bay, P7B 5E1, Canada
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liu, Xian Xian,Yang, Jie,Fong, Simon,et al. All-People-Test-Based Methods for COVID-19 Infectious Disease Dynamics Simulation Model: Towards Citywide COVID Testing[J]. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,2022,19(17).
APA Liu, Xian Xian,Yang, Jie,Fong, Simon,Dey, Nilanjan,Millham, Richard C.,&Fiaidhi, Jinan.(2022).All-People-Test-Based Methods for COVID-19 Infectious Disease Dynamics Simulation Model: Towards Citywide COVID Testing.International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,19(17).
MLA Liu, Xian Xian,et al."All-People-Test-Based Methods for COVID-19 Infectious Disease Dynamics Simulation Model: Towards Citywide COVID Testing".International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19.17(2022).
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