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Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets
Mercure,J. F.1,2,3; Pollitt,H.2,3; Viñuales,J. E.2; Edwards,N. R.2,4; Holden,P. B.4; Chewpreecha,U.3; Salas,P.2; Sognnaes,I.2; Lam,A.2,5; Knobloch,F.1,2
Source PublicationNature Climate Change
ISSN17586798 1758678X

Several major economies rely heavily on fossil fuel production and exports, yet current low-carbon technology diffusion, energy efficiency and climate policy may be substantially reducing global demand for fossil fuels . This trend is inconsistent with observed investment in new fossil fuel ventures , which could become stranded as a result. Here, we use an integrated global economy-environment simulation model to study the macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets (SFFA). Our analysis suggests that part of the SFFA would occur as a result of an already ongoing technological trajectory, irrespective of whether or not new climate policies are adopted; the loss would be amplified if new climate policies to reach the 2 °C target of the Paris Agreement are adopted and/or if low-cost producers (some OPEC countries) maintain their level of production ('sell out') despite declining demand; the magnitude of the loss from SFFA may amount to a discounted global wealth loss of US$1-4 trillion; and there are clear distributional impacts, with winners (for example, net importers such as China or the EU) and losers (for example, Russia, the United States or Canada, which could see their fossil fuel industries nearly shut down), although the two effects would largely offset each other at the level of aggregate global GDP.

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Indexed BySSCI
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000440200100017
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Cited Times [WOS]:147   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Social Sciences
Corresponding AuthorMercure,J. F.
Affiliation1.Department of Environmental ScienceRadboud University,Nijmegen,Netherlands
2.Cambridge Centre for EnvironmentEnergy and Natural Resource Governance (C-EENRG)University of Cambridge,Cambridge,United Kingdom
3.Cambridge Econometrics LtdCovent Garden,Cambridge,United Kingdom
4.Environment Earth and EcosystemsOpen University,Milton Keynes,United Kingdom
5.Department of EconomicsFaculty of Social SciencesUniversity of Macao,Taipa,Macao
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Mercure,J. F.,Pollitt,H.,Viñuales,J. E.,et al. Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets[J]. Nature Climate Change,2018,8(7):588-593.
APA Mercure,J. F.,Pollitt,H.,Viñuales,J. E.,Edwards,N. R.,Holden,P. B.,Chewpreecha,U.,Salas,P.,Sognnaes,I.,Lam,A.,&Knobloch,F..(2018).Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets.Nature Climate Change,8(7),588-593.
MLA Mercure,J. F.,et al."Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets".Nature Climate Change 8.7(2018):588-593.
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