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Climate-carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement
Holden,P. B.1; Edwards,N. R.1,2; Ridgwell,A.3; Wilkinson,R. D.4; Fraedrich,K.5; Lunkeit,F.6; Pollitt,H. E.2,7; Mercure,J. F.2,7,8; Salas,P.2; Lam,A.2,9; Knobloch,F.2,8; Chewpreecha,U.7; Viñuales,J. E.2
Source PublicationNature Climate Change
ISSN17586798 1758678X

The Paris Agreement aims to address the gap between existing climate policies and policies consistent with "holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 C". The feasibility of meeting the target has been questioned both in terms of the possible requirement for negative emissions and ongoing debate on the sensitivity of the climate-carbon-cycle system . Using a sequence of ensembles of a fully dynamic three-dimensional climate-carbon-cycle model, forced by emissions from an integrated assessment model of regional-level climate policy, economy, and technological transformation, we show that a reasonable interpretation of the Paris Agreement is still technically achievable. Specifically, limiting peak (decadal) warming to less than 1.7 °C, or end-of-century warming to less than 1.54 °C, occurs in 50% of our simulations in a policy scenario without net negative emissions or excessive stringency in any policy domain. We evaluate two mitigation scenarios, with 200 gigatonnes of carbon and 307 gigatonnes of carbon post-2017 emissions respectively, quantifying the spatio-temporal variability of warming, precipitation, ocean acidification and marine productivity. Under rapid decarbonization decadal variability dominates the mean response in critical regions, with significant implications for decision-making, demanding impact methodologies that address non-linear spatio-temporal responses. Ignoring carbon-cycle feedback uncertainties (which can explain 47% of peak warming uncertainty) becomes unreasonable under strong mitigation conditions.

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Indexed BySSCI
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000445927700026
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Cited Times [WOS]:1   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Social Sciences
Corresponding AuthorHolden,P. B.
Affiliation1.Environment Earth and Ecosystem SciencesOpen University,Milton Keynes,United Kingdom
2.Cambridge Centre for Environment Energy and Natural Resource Governance (C-EENRG)University of Cambridge,Cambridge,United Kingdom
3.Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of California,Riverside,United States
4.School of Mathematics and StatisticsUniversity of Sheffield,Sheffield,United Kingdom
5.Max Planck Institute of MeteorologyKlimaCampus,Hamburg,Germany
6.Meteorological InstituteUniversity of Hamburg,Hamburg,Germany
7.Cambridge Econometrics Ltd,Cambridge,United Kingdom
8.Faculty of ScienceRadboud University,Nijmegen,Netherlands
9.Department of EconomicsFaculty of Social ScienceUniversity of Macao,Taipa,Macao
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Holden,P. B.,Edwards,N. R.,Ridgwell,A.,et al. Climate-carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement[J]. Nature Climate Change,2018,8(7):609-613.
APA Holden,P. B.,Edwards,N. R.,Ridgwell,A.,Wilkinson,R. D.,Fraedrich,K.,Lunkeit,F.,Pollitt,H. E.,Mercure,J. F.,Salas,P.,Lam,A.,Knobloch,F.,Chewpreecha,U.,&Viñuales,J. E..(2018).Climate-carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement.Nature Climate Change,8(7),609-613.
MLA Holden,P. B.,et al."Climate-carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement".Nature Climate Change 8.7(2018):609-613.
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