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Development of a statistical forecasting model for PM2.5 in Macau based on clustering of backward trajectories
Tong Xie1; Kai Meng Mok2; Ka Veng Yuen3; Ka In Hoi4
2019-10-14
Conference Name2nd International Conference on Renewable Energy and Environment Engineering, REEE 2019
Source PublicationE3S Web of Conferences
Volume122
Pages05001
Conference Date19th to 22nd August 2019
Conference PlaceMunich, Germany
CountryGermany
Author of SourceCaetano N.
PublisherEDP Sciences
Abstract

A daily PM2.5 forecasting model based on multiple linear regression (MLR) and backward trajectory clustering of HYSPLIT was designed for its application to small cities where PM2.5 level is easily affected by regional transport. The objective of this study is to investigate the regions that affect the fine particulate concentration of Macau and to develop an effective forecasting system to enhance the capture of PM2.5 episodes. By clustering the HYSPLIT 24-hr backward trajectories originated at Macau from 2015 to 2017, five potential transportation paths of PM2.5 were found. A cluster based statistical model was developed and trained with air quality and meteorological data of 2015 and 2016. Then, the trained model was evaluated with data of 2017. Comparing to an ordinary model without backward trajectory clustering, the cluster based PM2.5 forecasting model yielded similar general forecast performance in 2017. However, the critical success index of the cluster based model was 11% higher than that of the ordinary model. This means the cluster based model has better model performance in PM2.5 concentration prediction and it is more important for the health of the public.

DOI10.1051/e3sconf/201912205001
URLView the original
Language英語English
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85073772536
Fulltext Access
FWCI0.0
Citation statistics
Document TypeConference paper
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Faculty of Science and Technology
Affiliation1.Postgraduate student, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Macau, Macau SAR, China
2.Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Macau, Macau SAR, China
3.Distinguished Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Macau, Macau SAR, China
4.Postdoctoral fellow, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Macau, Macau SAR, China
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Tong Xie,Kai Meng Mok,Ka Veng Yuen,et al. Development of a statistical forecasting model for PM2.5 in Macau based on clustering of backward trajectories[C]//Caetano N.:EDP Sciences,2019:05001.
APA Tong Xie,Kai Meng Mok,Ka Veng Yuen,&Ka In Hoi.(2019).Development of a statistical forecasting model for PM2.5 in Macau based on clustering of backward trajectories.E3S Web of Conferences,122,05001.
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