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Epidemiology Compartmental Models—SIR, SEIR, and SEIR with Intervention
Joao Alexandre Lobo Marques1; Francisco Nauber Bernardo Gois2; José Xavier-Neto3; Simon James Fong4
2021
Source PublicationPredictive Models for Decision Support in the COVID-19 Crisis
Author of SourceJoao Alexandre Lobo Marques, Francisco Nauber Bernardo Gois, José Xavier-Neto, Simon James Fong
Publication PlaceCham
PublisherSpringer
Pages15-39
Abstract

The process of decision-making when dealing with infectious diseases is firmly based on mathematical modeling nowadays. One usual approach is to consider the adoption of compartmental methods such as SIR and SEIR and a large number of corresponding variations for modeling and prediction epidemic time series. Nevertheless, the COVID-19 epidemic characteristics and curves are apparently challenging the results obtained by these models. This chapter presents the results of two traditional compartmental models, SIR (Susceptible—Infected–Recovered) and SEIR (Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered), and an adapted version of the SEIR, called SEIR with Intervention, which captures the impact of containment measures for the dynamics of the infection rate. The analysis is performed for five countries: China, United States, Brazil, Italy, and Singapore, each of them with specific characteristics of dealing with the pandemic. A sequence of results is presented, considering different parameters, in order to understand the feasibility of application for each model.

DOI10.1007/978-3-030-61913-8_2
URLView the original
Language英語English
ISBN978-3-030-61913-8
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85097155350
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeBook chapter
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
Corresponding AuthorJoao Alexandre Lobo Marques
Affiliation1.Laboratory of Neuroapplications,University of Saint Joseph,Macao
2.Machine Learning Department,Secretary of Health of the Government of the State of Ceara,Fortaleza,Brazil
3.Government Intelligence Cell,Secretary of Health of the Government of the State of Ceara,Fortaleza,Brazil
4.Department of Computer and Information Science,University of Macau,Macao
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Joao Alexandre Lobo Marques,Francisco Nauber Bernardo Gois,José Xavier-Neto,et al. Epidemiology Compartmental Models—SIR, SEIR, and SEIR with Intervention. Cham:Springer,2021:15-39.
APA Joao Alexandre Lobo Marques,Francisco Nauber Bernardo Gois,José Xavier-Neto,&Simon James Fong.(2021).Epidemiology Compartmental Models—SIR, SEIR, and SEIR with Intervention.Predictive Models for Decision Support in the COVID-19 Crisis,15-39.
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