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Predicting Multiple Hazards under Extreme Rainstorms
Zhou, S. Y.; Zhang, L. M.; Shen, P.
Conference Name8th International Conference on Case Histories in Geotechnical Engineering: Soil Erosion, Underground Engineering, and Risk Assessment, Geo-Congress 2019
Source PublicationGeotechnical Special Publication
IssueGSP 313
Conference Date24 -27 March 2019
Conference PlacePhiladelphia

Due to the subtropical weather condition and the changing climate, Hong Kong is experiencing extreme rainstorms more and more frequently, which can trigger a large number of natural hazards such as landslides, debris flows, and flooding. These hazards do not occur separately, but often occur simultaneously or consecutively, and interact with each other, creating amplification and cascading effects. For example, landslides can provide loose materials for debris flows, and debris flows can cause surface erosion and blockage of flood-control facilities. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate possible scenarios of geo-hazards under extreme rainstorms. This paper aims to predict regional multiple hazards under extreme rainstorms and hazard interactions. Previously, landslides, flooding, and debris flows are often considered as separate hazards and simulated individually. In this paper, an integrated full-process model (EDDA 2.0, Erosion-Deposition Debris flow Analysis 2.0) is implemented to predict slope failures, debris flows, and flooding in a single simulation. Slope stability is analyzed first, and then debris flow initiation from landslides and from surface erosion is considered. Dynamic changes of flow materials are also modeled in the program. The model is first validated with the historical records during the June 2008 rainstorm. Then consequences under three extreme storms (i.e. 44%, 65%, 85% of 24-h PMP, probable maximum precipitation) are predicted. The results show that with the increase of rainstorm intensity, the hazard magnitude increases dramatically, which can pose great threat to the society. This study can be helpful for multi-hazard risk assessment and government policy making.

KeywordDebris Flow Flooding Landslide Multiple Hazards Rainstorm
URLView the original
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85063468829
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Document TypeConference paper
CollectionPersonal research not belonging to the institution
AffiliationDept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhou, S. Y.,Zhang, L. M.,Shen, P.. Predicting Multiple Hazards under Extreme Rainstorms[C],2019:193-199.
APA Zhou, S. Y.,Zhang, L. M.,&Shen, P..(2019).Predicting Multiple Hazards under Extreme Rainstorms.Geotechnical Special Publication,2019-March(GSP 313),193-199.
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