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Predicting debris-flow clusters under extreme rainstorms: a case study on Hong Kong Island
Zhou, S. Y.; Gao, L.; Zhang, L. M.
2019-12
Source PublicationBulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment
ISSN1435-9529
Volume78Issue:8Pages:5775-5794
Abstract

Debris flows can cause severe loss of human lives and damage to property, especially on densely populated hilly terrains. In the changing climate, the frequency of debris flows is on a rising trend. Therefore, it is important to forecast possible scenarios of debris flows under extreme weather conditions. Previous numerical studies often deal with one individual debris flow in one analysis. Yet a large number of debris flows can occur in a large storm. This paper presents a physically based model to predict likely debris flow clusters on Hong Kong Island with an area of approximately 80 km considering the influence of the changing climate. Firstly, a slope stability analysis is conducted, and unstable cells and landslide deposition areas are predicted. Then clusters of debris flows initiating from these landslides are simulated considering hillslope erosion. The models are validated with historical debris flows triggered by a rainstorm in 2008. Finally, debris flow clusters under three reference extreme rainstorms (i.e. 44%, 65% and 85% of the 24-h probable maximum precipitation, PMP) are predicted. With the increase of rainstorm magnitude, numerous debris flows can occur simultaneously and merge, posing much greater threat to society. The consequences of debris flows grow dramatically when the magnitude reaches a certain extent, i.e. 65% of the 24-h PMP.

KeywordClimate Change Debris Flows Hillslope Erosion Landslides Natural Hazards Rainstorms
DOI10.1007/s10064-019-01504-3
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Geology
WOS IDWOS:000496080700017
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85065321396
Fulltext Access
FWCI1.5524019
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionPersonal research not belonging to the institution
AffiliationDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Kowloon, Clearwater Bay, Hong Kong
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhou, S. Y.,Gao, L.,Zhang, L. M.. Predicting debris-flow clusters under extreme rainstorms: a case study on Hong Kong Island[J]. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment,2019,78(8):5775-5794.
APA Zhou, S. Y.,Gao, L.,&Zhang, L. M..(2019).Predicting debris-flow clusters under extreme rainstorms: a case study on Hong Kong Island.Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment,78(8),5775-5794.
MLA Zhou, S. Y.,et al."Predicting debris-flow clusters under extreme rainstorms: a case study on Hong Kong Island".Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment 78.8(2019):5775-5794.
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